For senior professionals in real estate and urban development, the familiar concept of “normal” has given way to an era of profound uncertainty.

Political and economic uncertainty has become the constant operating environment directly impacting investment flows, supply chains, and the demand for the spaces we create and manage.

Shifting Geopolitical Tectonic Plates

The geopolitical keynotes delivered at the recent ULI’s Europe Conference depicted that a fundamental reshaping of the global order is underway.

The US-China rivalry stands out as a primary source of uncertainty, influencing trade policies, global supply chains, and where businesses locate. China’s control over processing 19 of the world’s 20 most important critical minerals is a significant factor, impacting construction and manufacturing inputs globally.

Beyond this rivalry, ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East contribute to widespread global instability.

A hot topic of the day focused on the potential for a messy disintegration of Iran’s regime, which could further destabilise the Middle East and energy markets.

The diminishing American appetite for “global policing” creates power vacuums, leading to less predictable global security. This necessitates greater due diligence and risk assessment for international projects.

Economic Headwinds and Political Volatility

Globalisation, while beneficial for many, has also created uneven distributions of wealth, fuelling political backlash and populism. This often translates into unpredictable policy shifts and challenges in securing public consensus for development.

Europe, for instance, grapples with balancing complex relationships, an aging population, national debt, and the need for increased defence spending. Internal fragmentation within the EU further complicates cross-border investment and hinders a cohesive single market.

The volatile nature of American politics, particularly discussions around U.S. budget and debt challenges, could lead to higher interest rates, significantly impacting real estate financing and investment returns globally.

Opportunities and Risks of Technology

Another recurrent theme of the day was the rapid technological change and the implications for economies and societies.

The rapid advancement of Artificial Intelligence (AI) presents both immense opportunities and potential instability. While AI offers tools for smarter urban planning and more efficient building management, the pervasive spread of “fake news” can destabilise societies.

For our sector, embracing AI for innovation requires careful consideration of data security and ethical implications.

Navigating a New Era: Strategic Implications for real estate and urban development

In this volatile environment, commercial enterprises may be better positioned than governments to navigate uncertainty due to their agility. For real estate professionals, this means focusing on fundamental demand drivers and value creation, rather than being paralysed by daily headlines.

Europe, despite its challenges, presents strategic opportunities. It can attract global talent and develop new industries like green tech by streamlining regulations and fostering internal cohesion. This suggests potential for growth in sustainable urban developments and innovation hubs across the continent.

While the time of “normalcy” has passed, and uncertainty is deeply rooted in global politics, understanding these geopolitical shifts is crucial.

By focusing on fundamental needs, embracing technological innovation, and adapting to the evolving global landscape, real estate and urban development professionals can continue to create value and positively shape the future.

This is the first in our new series of thought leadership blogs on the key topics and talking points from ULI Europe Conference 2025.

The next ULI Europe Annual Conference will take place in Berlin in June 2026. Further details coming soon.